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Showing posts with label asset allocation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asset allocation. Show all posts

Thursday, June 3, 2010

My May blog posts by category: Blogging, economy/investments/wealth management, marketing, social media, writing

Did you notice that I went wild in May, posting every day as part of the Word Count Blogathon? For your convenience, I'm listing my May posts by category.


Blogging
Economy, investments, and wealth management
Marketing
Social media
Writing
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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Monday, May 17, 2010

Dan Ariely says disclosure may hurt investors: Report from his #CFA2010 talk -- #CFA2010

Most investment professionals, including CFA charterholders, figure that more disclosure about financial advisors' conflicts of interest will help investors.

Not so, said Dan Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational, to the CFA Institute's annual conference on May 16. In fact, disclosure may not improve investors' decisions.


Two countervailing forces apply when a financial advisor reveals conflicts of interest, said Ariely.

Let's assume the financial advisor tells a client that he'll receive a higher payment if the client chooses Fund A over Fund B.

On the one hand, the client will tend to discount the advisor's opinion because of the potential bias, said Ariely. On the other hand, the advisor will feel freer to push Fund A because he has revealed his conflict. Ariely believes that this second force will overwhelm the client's discounting of the advisor's opinion. As a result, investors end up no better off despite disclosures. 


You can watch Ariely present
Some of Ariely's past presentations have been captured on video. You can view Ariely on YouTube. 


Follow the CFA Institute's annual conference
You can learn about presentations at the CFA Institute's annual conference as they occur. Read the CFA Institute's conference blog or follow the conference using the #CFA 2010 hashtag on Twitter.
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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Friday, May 14, 2010

Hear Roger Ibbotson on asset allocation for free on May 27, thanks to CFA Institute

Roger Ibbotson will speak about "The Importance of Asset Allocation" in a live audio webcast on May 27 at 1:00 p.m. EDT. You can register on the CFA Institute's website.

This event is free, even to non-members of the CFA Institute.

If you read "Roger Ibbotson attacks asset allocation 'folklore,' " you know I think Ibbotson is worth hearing.
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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Small-cap investing opportunities according to Artio's Dedio

"Opportunities in Smallcap Investing" was the title of the presentation that Samuel Dedio, head of US equities for Artio Global Management, delivered to the 2010 annual conference of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts. The growth of options trading was his most interesting theme, in my opinion. By the way, if you don't recognize the name Artio Global Management, it was formerly Julius Baer. 

Where the opportunities lie 
Dedio identified opportunities in financials sector, including regional banks, online brokerage companies, and insurance. He figures that "industry consolidation and stimulus spending may potentially benefit this area." 

Industrials and materials stocks will benefit from emerging markets' demand. For example, Dedio likes silver, where supply is not keeping up with demand. Compared with gold, silver has many more industrial applications, yet it trades at a discount to gold.

In healthcare, Dedio likes companies that can help implement cost savings. This means companies in diagnostics, medical technology, pharmaceuticals, and home healthcare providers.

The survivors of the 2009 shakeout in retailers will benefit in 2010. "We expect margins (and earnings) to recover more rapidly than in prior cycles," wrote Dedio in the consumer discretionary section of his handout.

Finally, in technology, Dedio focused on the undervalued importance of semiconductors. 


Options: Why online brokerage may thrive 
Dedio particularly likes online brokerage companies with exposure to options trading as a play on demographics and rising interest in making money through options. 

"The younger generation eats it up," said Dedio, referring to options trading. This is apparently tied to younger investors growing up with computers and to educational efforts by companies such as Think or Swim.

"Don't 85% of options expire worthless?" asked an audience member. That's exactly what makes options a great business, according to Dedio. Investors have to buy more options on an ongoing basis. 

Dedio displayed a graph showing that total monthly equity option trading volume has more than doubled since the year 2000. Monthly trading volume, which was under 100 million until January 2004, has been  200 million--and sometimes exceeded 350 million--during the period January 2008 to September 2009.

Dedio's one concern about options trading is pricing pressure. However, cost cutters are at a disadvantage in the options arena, where education remains critical. Education requires more robust margins than cost cutters manage.
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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Morgan Creek Capital's Yusko on investing

"Alternative Thinking About Investments" was the topic addressed by Mark Yusko, CEO and chief investment officer, Morgan Creek Capital Management, when he spoke at the annual conference of the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts on May 7. Yusko's wide-ranging talk was provocative and entertaining, with some great one-liners that became tweets that I quote below.


Alternatives deserve more attention


Yusko thinks investors should put more into alternative strategies. A small allocation simply cannot have a big enough impact.

This is a lesson that target date fund (TDF) managers should consider, suggested Ryan Alfred, co-founder and president of BrightScope, in response to my tweet. As he explained,





Going back to Yusko, he also suggested that your clients should have at least one-third of their assets in illiquid investments because such investments "win" after recessions. He's assuming that your clients have plenty of money that they plan to pass on to others in their wills. Yusko didn't specify which illiquid assets he was talking about.


Provocative 
Yusko isn't fond of mainstream media. "Cancel your subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. It's all wrong, it's all biased." He used the example of the war between Russia and Georgia to make his case, mentioning that Morgan Creek pays someone to read Russian newspapers for them. 

Yusko also spoke in favor of high fees. He seemed to suggest that fees rise along with the investment manager's ability to deliver performance.




Humorous Yusko 
In closing, here is some Yusko humor.







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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Roger Ibbotson attacks asset allocation "folklore"

"The time has come for folklore to be replaced with reality" says Roger Ibbotson in "The Importance of Asset Allocation" in CFA Institute's Financial Analysts Journal (March/April).

Folklore means "the idea that asset allocation policy explains more than 90 percent of performance," which is a misinterpretation of the classic 1986 article, "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" by Gary Brinson, Randolph Hood, and Gilbert Beebower, says Ibbotson. 

"Asset allocation is very important, but nowhere near the 90 percent of the variation in return is caused by the specific asset allocation mix," writes Ibbotson. Rather, active management plays a role equal to that of asset allocation, as shown by "The Equal Importance of Asset Allocation and Active Management," an article co-authored by Ibbotson with James Xiong, Thomas Idzorek, and Peng Chen in the same issue of the Financial Analysts Journal.

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Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

JP Morgan's Eigen: Put your clients in non-traditional, long-short fixed income

Too many of your clients are over-invested in traditional fixed income, in the opinion of William Eigen, JPMorgan Asset Management's director of absolute return strategies and portfolio manager of the JPM Strategic Income Opportunities Fund. He made a case for using fixed income funds that can go short and use synthetic financial instruments during his presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society on March 15. 

Why bond funds haven't changed
Fixed income funds really haven't changed in 30 years, said Eigen. Their managers still basically rely on changes on interest rates to make money. In contrast, he said, managers of equities have driven the development of hedge funds.

Fixed income hasn't evolved because interest rates have been falling for 30 years, said Eigen. In other words, with falling rates driving capital appreciation, there was no need for new techniques.

Can you imagine, Eigen asked, what would have happened to stock funds if the Standard & Poor's 500 had gone straight up for thirty years? Clearly he believes this would have stifled innovation in the management of stocks. Instead, the stock market's ups and downs spurred creativity. 

The need to protect your clients' capital 
Traditional fixed income performed more or less okay for thirty years, with some rocky years here and there. But the interest-rate decline that drove bonds' long-term positive performance will end. "I'm nervous with short rates at zero," said Eigen, "yet investors are still piling in."

Indeed, Eigen managed traditional bond funds during his 12-year career at Fidelity Investments. He left because he felt he couldn't protect his investors' capital adequately under the limitations of traditional bond investing. "I won't be held prisoner to duration," said Eigen. He wanted to be able to short-sell and put on relative value trades using synthetic instruments.

It's important to earn positive returns in fixed income by taking advantages of factors other than falling interest rates. If not, asked Eigen, what happens when a long-term trend of rising interest rates takes hold? If you're familiar with concept of duration, you know that bond prices fall when interest rates rise. Another negative: With interest rates at historic lows, there's no "coupon cushion" of attractive interest rates to ease the pain of bond investors.

It's easy to see the appeal of short-selling bonds in a rising interest-rate scenario. Investors would profit by essentially betting on bond prices' decline.

Now Eigen can take advantage of short-selling as manager of the JPM Strategic Income Opportunities Fund, a long-short relative value fund that does not use leverage. The fund can use synthetic instruments. It can also hold cash because Eigen's top priority is not to lose money. That's a challenge for which cash is sometimes the only solution.

The fund is managed as an absolute-return fund with a target of t-bills plus 2%-8%. "You don't need duration to generate solid fixed income returns," Eigen said. Another potential benefit of his approach: it has "zero correlation to traditional fixed income," Eigen said. 

Outlook: Rising rates, risky sovereign debt, relative value
Eigen thinks interest rates could rise faster than most pundits expect. Investors might get scared once rates start rising. Then they might quickly bail out of bonds to cut their losses.

Eigen is also scared about sovereign risk. Look at what's happened in Europe and Dubai, he said. His fund is taking advantage of that on the short side.

Synthetic instruments such as credit default swaps are a good way to take advantage of the relative value opportunities that arise in times of low volatility in bond markets. For example, investors seem to perceive a solid company such as Berkshire Hathaway as on a par with lesser insurance companies. Synthetic instruments are sometimes the only economical way to invest in this disparity.

What do you think? Is the end near for traditionally managed fixed income funds--or have they still got some life left in them?

Related posts
Fund using alternative strategies gain steam
* I LOVE this fixed income presentation
* Strong words from editor of Financial Analysts Journal

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Institutional plan sponsors make lousy decisions

Institutional plan sponsors don't know what the heck they're doing when they make asset allocation decisions.

At least that's the conclusion I'm tempted to draw after reading "Absence of Value: An Analysis of Investment Allocation Decisions by Institutional Plan Sponsors,"(subscription or membership may be required to access article) Financial Analysts Journal (Nov./Dec. 2009) by Scott D. Stewart, John J. Neumann, Christopher Kittel, and Jeffrey Heisler.

Plan sponsors' poor product selection was responsible for most of the underperformance in the author's study. As their abstract states, 
Results show that plan sponsors may not be acting in their stakeholders’ best interests when they make rebalancing or reallocation decisions. Investment products that receive contributions subsequently underperform products experiencing withdrawals over one, three, and five years. For investment decisions among equity, fixed-income, and balanced products, most of the underperformance can be attributed to product selection.
These poor decisions may be due to investment officers finding "comfort in extrapolating past performance when, in fact, excess performance is random or cyclical," suggest the authors.

Should this research impact how plan sponsors manage their assets? I'd like to hear what you think.
____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
If you're struggling to pump out a steady flow of good blog posts, check out my five-week teleclass for financial advisors, "How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read," and sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Friday, January 22, 2010

Poll about overweight, but not the stuff of New Year's resolutions

I grapple with "overweight" at the end of every year and every quarter. 

It's the kind of overweight measured in percentage points, not pounds. That's because I'm writing performance reports for institutional mutual funds that may overweight or underweight sectors relative to the funds' benchmarks.

I haven't found any guidelines about how to write about these statistics, so I'd like to find out which wording you prefer for talking about a fund that has above-benchmark holdings in a sector.

  1. Our overweight in
  2. Our overweight position in
  3. Our overweight to
  4. Our overweighting in
  5. Our overweighting to
Please answer the poll that will appear in the right-hand column of this blog until some time in February. I'll report the results in my March newsletter.

If you can give a compelling reason why you favor specific wording, I'd also like to hear about that.

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Strong words from editor of Financial Analysts Journal

"...I hereby consign the shibboleth of 'uncorrelated return' to the scrap heap of asset allocation lingo, where it shall be available only to unscrupulous sellers, credulous buyers, and unschooled investment analysts."

-- Richard M. Ennis, executive editor, Financial Analysts Journal

These strong words from Ennis appeared in in his "Editor's Corner" entitled "The Uncorrelated Return Myth," Financial Analysts Journal (Nov./Dec. 2009). 

Ennis asserts that "The notion of the existence of 'uncorrelated return' assets with handsome risk premiums flies in the face of financial theory and conflicts with empirical evidence." 

When he says "financial theory," Ennis is referring to the capital asset pricing model, which accords positive risk premiums to market-correlated assets. He also says that evidence shows that so-called uncorrelated assets such as real estate, hedge funds, and private equity are actually highly correlated with the stock market.

What do YOU think about this topic?


____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The best private equity opportunity in generations

"Our database tells us we're in a multigenerational opportunity to be a private equity investor," said Martin Grasso, CEO of Pearl Street Capital Group, a private equity fund-of-funds manager. He believes that investors with longer time horizons can get above-benchmark returns without significant volatility. Grasso made his comments as a panelist on "The State of Private Equity: Opportunity Through Crisis," presented to the Boston Security Analysts Society on November 5.

Data suggests that capital growth and buyout private equity get the highest returns in years with the lowest levels of EBITDA leverage, said Grasso. That's the situation we're in now.

It also pays to invest with the best, according to Grasso. Top quartile and top decile private equity fund managers show much higher levels of persistence than long-only public securities managers. In other words, top performers in private equity have a greater tendency to remain top performers. The difference in performance between top and bottom quartile managers is much greater in private equity than among public equity managers.

Implications for advisors:
* Access to top firms is still difficult, so go with a fund-of-funds to gain that access.
* Invest in 10 vintage years and consider some secondary offerings, which are available now that some investors can't meet their funding obligations as limited partners.
* Best private equity opportunities now are in small-medium companies where there's less competition and where private equity managers are more inclined to partner with management to "accrete value" and make minority investments.
* Diversify across geography and sectors.



The last two paragraphs of this post were revised on Dec. 7, thanks to some clarifications by Martin Grasso of Pearl Street Capital Group.

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Fixed income viewpoints from CFA Institute conference

Here are opinions on currency and CDOs that grabbed my attention at the CFA Institute's Fixed Income conference last week.

If YOU were at the conference, I'd be interested to learn what surprised or intrigued you. 

“The New Currency World Order”
Ron Liesching of Mountain Pacific Group, LLC

The U.S. dollar cannot be replaced as the world’s reserve currency, but its role will be profoundly altered.

It’s time for investors to consider
*  Hedging their U.S. dollar risk
*  Active currency management
*  Active long commodity allocation
*  Long commodity currencies
*  Strategically long emerging market currencies
*  Global is the new core

“The Pricing of Investment-Grade Credit Risk during the Financial Crisis” 

Joshua Coval, Harvard Business School

There’s evidence that ratings agencies bent their standards to bestow too many AAA ratings.  They rated 75.5% of CDOs’ capital structure as AAA, when the rating agency model allowed 63.4%, according to “Did Subjectivity Play a Role in CDO Credit Ratings?” by John Griffin and Dragon Tang. Thanks, Prof. Coval, for sending me the link to Griffin and Tang's article!

The collapse of structured products will impact the economic recovery to the extent that cheap credit is less available. The U.S. consumer had been the engine of U.S. GDP growth thanks to cheap credit.

Related posts:
* Dan Fuss: Bond investors have learned from experience...not

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

"Turbulence Can Improve Portfolio Diversification"

"The only problem with diversification is that it's never been tried," said Mark Kritzman, president and CEO of Windham Capital Management, in a July 21 speech to the Boston chapter of the Quantitative Work Alliance for Applied Finance, Education and Wisdom (QWAFAFEW). If he gets his way, investors will achieve truly diversified portfolios by applying his concept of turbulence.

Continue reading my article, "Turbulence Can Improve Portfolio Diversification" in Advisor Perspectives.
____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com, follow me on Twitter or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Friday, March 27, 2009

Harvard Management's Mendillo grapples with challenging environment

Even Jane Mendillo admits she had awful timing in becoming president and CEO of Harvard Management Company (HMC) on July 1, 2008. As she said in her presentation on "Endowment Management in a Changing World" to the Boston Security Analysts Society on March 25, she assumed her post
* Two days before commodity prices peaked
* Six weeks before the beginning of a massive rescue of financial institutions
* Just before six to nine months of the most challenging markets that most investment professionals have seen
Nonetheless, Mendillo showed a cheerful face to the friendly audience containing many fellow CFA charterholders.

Mendillo is cautious about investments because "At this point, uncertainty is a big factor in markets and economies. The short-mid term may be challenging," she said. It could take many years, she acknowledged, for the size of the Harvard endowment to return to its $37 billion level of June 30, 2008. Still, she noted, the endowment has posted excellent gains since its beginnings, including its growth from only $19 billion five years earlier.

Mendillo's caution is reflected in the endowment's actions. "We're not rushing for the exits. Nor are we rushing to get back into the markets," she said. Mendillo took pains to correct what she called misperceptions that HMC has sold private equity holdings for "pennies on the dollar." The firm has made some transactions in secondary markets, but hasn't taken major chunks out of its private equity holdings, she said.

HMC is taking a more conservative tack under Mendillo. It has cut back its -5% cash weighting to -3% for the first time in decades. Moreover, the portfolio is "seriously in cash," she said, because she wanted to create more flexibility in the portfolio and make room for new investments.

Where is HMC heading? Mendillo gave some clues, saying
* We continue to be cautious about deploying cash."
* "If we don't think we have an edge in a market, we stay out or we index."
* External management is significantly more expensive than internal management, so if external management doesn't pay off, HMC will hire a team that can deliver
* The failure of the illiquid portion of the portfolio to be self-funding has "impacted our appetite for further illiquid assets"
* She expects to see very attractive opportunities in real estate, but they may lie a couple years ahead.
* She is very excited about what the firm's natural resources team has uncovered.



_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Funds using alternative investment strategies gain steam

Alternative investments that are less correlated to major market indexes are gathering momentum in the advisor community. Two trends are fueling the movement. First, the sharp market declines since September 2008 have boosted the attraction of strategies that don't dive along with stock market. "This year, people are looking to dial down risk in their portfolios," says Bill Harding, director of research at Morningstar Investment Services in Chicago. Second, these strategies are increasingly available to those who don't qualify as accredited investors (with investable assets of $1 million or more).

Continue reading "Against the Grain," my article in the March 2009 issue of Financial Planning magazine (free registration may be required for access).

Also, here's some information that didn't make it into the article. It's the list of funds used by the advisors whom I interviewed.
Absolute Opportunities
Absolute Strategies
Arbitrage
Diamond Hill Long-Short
Direxion Commodity Trends
Gateway
Highbridge Statistical Market Neutral
Hussman Strategic Growth
Merger
Nakoma Absolute Return
PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Strategy
Robeco Boston Partners Long/Short Equity
Rydex Managed Futures Strategy


_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Prof. Andre Perold on "Stable Risk Portfolios: A Timely Alternative to Static Asset Allocations?"

Risk matters. October’s wild stock market swings have reminded investors that volatility can be painful. They simply can’t stomach as much risk as they thought they could.

In this environment, it’s no surprise that Professor André F. Perold’s October 21 talk on “Risk Stabilization and Asset Allocation” attracted a bigger than usual crowd to the monthly meeting of the Boston chapter of the Quantitative Work Alliance for Applied Finance, Education, and Wisdom, affectionately known as QWAFAFEW.

Perold’s premise: A stable-risk portfolio that keeps risk constant is a viable alternative to investors’ classic static policy portfolio, such as 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and it may offer superior risk-adjusted returns. 


Continue reading about stable risk portfolios in my Advisor Perspectives article.


_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2008 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Monday, September 22, 2008

Is a global infrastructure fund right for your clients' portfolios?

With their high returns and low correlations to other major indices over the past five years, investments in global infrastructure-toll roads, airports, utilities and the like-are attracting attention from financial advisors and new products from fund providers. But will such impressive performance continue? And, if you buy the case for this kind of investing, how should you evaluate the funds vying for your attention?

Continue reading my article on infrastructure investing in Advisor Perspectives for insights from Jay Rosenberg, lead manager of First American's Global Infrastructure Fund, and from Harold Evensky, president of wealth management firm Evensky & Katz.
_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA

Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.

Copyright 2008 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Friday, June 27, 2008

"Tool: Google Trends"

Google Trends will help you figure out which of your key words are searched most frequently.

Learn more in "Tool: Google Trends" on Erik Sherman's Writer Biz blog.


_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Investment Writing
Writing that's an investment in your success

Check out my website at http://www.investmentwriting.com/index.htm or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Podcasts from CFA Institute Annual Conference

The CFA Institute's Annual Conference in Vancouver attracted record attendance. Now, you can listen to podcasts of some of the speakers, if you've paid for a Total Access membership in the CFA Institute.

As of May 29, you can listen to:

  • Building a Global Equity Portfolio by Lawrence S. Speidell
  • Prediction Markets: The Collective Knowledge of Market Participants by Justin Wolfers
  • From Beta to Exotic Beta to Alpha Behavioral Finance: What Good Is it? by Meir Statman, Arnold S. Wood, and Jason Zweig
  • Investment Opportunities in Energy by Henry Groppe
  • Investment Strategies to Exploit the Growth of China by Burton Malkiel
  • The Neuroeconomics of Surprise: How the Investing Brain Handles the Unexpected by Jason Zweig
  • Economic Prospects for the U.S. Economy from a Monetary Policymaker's Perspective by Janet L. Yellen
  • Nurturing Innovation in an Asset Management Firm by Blake R. Grossman
_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Investment Writing
Writing that's an investment in your success

Check out my website at http://www.investmentwriting.com/index.htm or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.