"Where Are We Heading? The Future of Investment Management in Boston"

The future of investment management in Boston was the focus of a panel presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society's annual meeting on June 24. The view that Boston is being left behind made the greatest impact on me, but I'll report some of the opinions of all four speakers.


Reamer: Emphasis on actively managed equities hurts Boston
The investment world is shifting toward aggressive hedge funds and passive quantitative funds, said Norton Reamer, vice-chairman and founder, Asset Management Finance LLC. There's also currently an emphasis on fixed income. This is because the public has been discouraged by the stock market returns of the past two years. They want defensive, safe investments. On a related note, large pension funds are moving more toward indexing.


These trends don't favor Boston, the home of the original mutual fund, because local firms emphasize actively managed mutual funds. At least these trends don't bode well in the immediate future.


For Boston to prosper, it must attract assets from around the world, said Reamer. However, he sees the action shifting to New York, London, and even Philadelphia and California. Boston has only one of the 10 largest hedge funds and three of the 30 largest. While Boston has a history of venture capital, venture capital is less important than private equity, which is concentrated elsewhere, said Reamer.


One of Reamer's comments held a glimmer of hope. Universities--along with arbitrage groups, traders, and others--are the source of the new ideas that are changing the investment world. Boston has some great universities. Perhaps the universities can fuel the region's resurgence as an investment center. I'm happy to note that the Boston Security Analysts Society's program committee has a subcommittee devoting to inviting speakers from academia.


Putnam: Four trends will create many losers, few winners 
Investment management is a craft, said Don Putnam, managing partner of Grail Partners, who moderated the panel. He emphasized the need to avoid losing sight of the craft before he described the four trends that he believes are changing the industry.


As a result of these trends, there will be many losers and few winners, said Putnam. The winners will be global firms as well as small cadres of capable people. The big challenge for money management will be to connect these two groups.


Trend 1: The long, complicated supply chain is reordering. For example, people are seeing the problems with "the slices taken off for people who deliver golf balls." I assume Putnam was referring to wholesalers and the broader issue of 12b-1 fees and the like, though he said that he was not making a case for fee-only advisors. Changes are coming as a result of regulatory pressures, client demands, and "better mousetraps," such as ETFs and active ETFs. Putnam said he's sceptical about growth opportunities for the mutual fund industry.


Trend 2: The relevance of specialization is declining. Why? Because the efficient frontier--and the need to diversify into many slices of the market--has been challenged. "It has been proven to be nonsense for the client," said Putnam. Clients' "true utility equation" can be delivered more efficiently with quantitative solutions, he added.


Trend 3: The arithmetic of the investment business is changing with the rising importance of asset allocation. As the utility of money management has declined, fees have risen, said Putnam. This can't last. While clients have bought the "myth of comfort and control," the past three years have increased client dissatisfaction.


Trend 4: Technology is increasing in importance. Technology should be woven into every aspect of money management, said Putnam. Technology's influence on money management has barely begun.


Manning: Structure your firm to have an edge over your competition 
You must deliver great results to keep assets, said Robert J. Manning, who spoke as CEO of MFS Investment Management, but is scheduled to become the firm's chairman on July 1. This means you must structure your firm to have an edge over your competition. Manning discussed three key elements of MFS' structure.


1. Follow a long-term investment philosophy. The world is preoccupied with short-term investment returns. However, MFS believes that you need a culture of long-term investing backed by an appropriate compensation structure. When MFS conducts performance reviews, it only considers periods of three years or longer.


2. Create a global footprint. If your people are only in Boston, you can't be a winner, said Manning. For example, if you don't have staff in Europe, you can't respond quickly enough when credit default swaps widen in Europe. As part of the global footprint discussion, Manning emphasized the need to integrate the firm's fixed income and equity teams.


3. Analysts are more important than portfolio managers. The old model is broken, said Manning. The most important employees are career analysts who have expertise in specific sectors. MFS has eight global sector heads. These are the people who, if they "see a storm coming" get the entire firm out before it hits.


The increased importance of analysts has been driven partly by the fact that clients want to buy "specialized sleeves of alpha." This is reflected in analysts' compensation. At MFS, analysts earn more than portfolio managers.


We sell the global research platform, not the portfolio manager, said Manning. The portfolio manager simply assembles the alpha streams from the analysts the way that clients want.


Hughes: Confident in Boston's future 
Larry Hughes, CEO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management, said that Boston's talent and innovation makes his firm feel confident about Boston's future.


Still, the next decade will pose challenges for wealth managers in terms of how to protect clients against continued market volatility and how to capture the related opportunities. Hughes suggested three areas for focus.


1. Investment innovation--The "set it and forget it" ways of the past won't work any more, said Hughes. It's important to capture trends that develop--and disappear--in months, or perhaps even just weeks.


2. Seamless and dynamic planning--Wealth managers must "plan across silos," considering all aspects of clients' lives, including taxes, estate planning, health care, and more.


3. Better manager-client engagement--It's important to speak in your clients' terms. Clients don't talk about the efficient frontier, standard deviation, or r-squared, said Hughes. So neither should wealth managers. Instead, wealth managers should present issues in straightforward terms, such as "helping you maintain your lifestyle."

Related posts:
* Investment management career advice from industry pros
* "Have mutual fund fees gone up or down?"
* GMO's Jeremy Grantham on "The Ethical Hole in Finance" at #CFA2010
____________________  
Receive a free 32-page e-book with client communications tips when you sign up for my free monthly newsletter.  

Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Investment management career advice from industry veterans

Investment industry veterans' somewhat gloomy outlook for Boston's asset management firms prompted me to ask, what should the people in this room do to promote their careers?


I asked this question during the Q&A session following "Where Are We Heading? The Future of Investment Management in Boston," a June 24 panel presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society's annual meeting. You'll find the panelists' suggestions below.


Keep learning, said Donald H. Putnam, managing partner, Grail Partners LLC. As the role of technology accelerates, you can't achieve the same outcomes as in the past using old skills. The great investors spend more time on their own skills as they get older, he added.


Take new challenges and learn new things, said Norton Reamer, vice-chairman and founder, Asset Management Finance LLC.


Be passionate about what you do, said Larry Hughes, CEO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. If you don't feel passionate, then find something else to do.


Focus on your trade, said Robert Manning, CEO. MFS Investment Management. If you're good at what you do, you'll find a job despite the industry trends.

(Added 6/29) For more information on the panelists' presentations, read "Where Are We Heading? The Future of Investment Management in Boston."

Related posts:
* "You" can help your job hunting "thank you"
* Useful LinkedIn Groups for investment and wealth management job hunters
* Recruiter Ted Chaloner on job interviews that get results
____________________
  Receive a free 32-page e-book with client communications tips when you sign up for my free monthly newsletter.  

Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

My Boston-area networking suggestions

Social media are great, but sometimes I want to meet my business colleagues, prospects, and referral sources in person. 

In this post, I share some names of networking organizations in greater Boston. Perhaps you'll find an organization that works for you. Even if you're not in Boston, some of these organizations have a national presence.

My anchor organizations are the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS), the local chapter of the CFA Institute, and the Women's Business Network (WBN). I'm a volunteer for the  BSAS. I try to attend at least one program monthly to keep on top of investment management issues and to meet new people. I belong to WBN out in Wellesley to get myself out of my office to chat with other small business owners.
 
Here are some other organizations I've enjoyed on multiple occasions. They're a mix of financial, communications, and business groups.

• Boston Women in Finance-- I've enjoyed presenting to their members on writing techniques.
• Downtown Women's Club
• International Association of Business Communicators-Boston chapter
• Public Relations Society of America-Boston chapter

There are many more worthy organizations in greater Boston. One that intrigues me is the Boston Economic Club. If only I had more time... 

____________________    
Receive a free 32-page e-book with client communications tips when you sign up for my free monthly newsletter.  

Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Watch out for inflation, says veteran value manager Jean-Marie Eveillard

Value investing was the focus of the presentation by Jean-Marie Eveillard, senior adviser and board trustee to the First Eagle Funds and senior vice president of First Eagle Investment Management, LLC, to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS) on April 13. Eveillard also opined on the world economic outlook.

Three economic scenarios
Eveillard thinks there are three potential directions for the U.S. from here.
1. A typical post-WWII expansion-- In this scenario, the authorities lever up the system again, so we get a three- to five-year expansion, Eveillard said. This would mean that we are still in a post-World War II environment. Eveillard is concerned about the short-term, even speculative orientation of investors in an environment in which equity mutual funds average 100% annual turnover.
2. Japanese-style stagflation--As the private sector continues to deleverage, the U.S. might fall into stagflation similar to that experienced in Japan for the past 20 years. This would happen if lenders don't want to lend and borrowers don't want to borrow, despite the government's efforts to combat their resistance. Eveillard considers this unlikely because, unlike the Japanese, Americans are not resigned to economic stagnation. We'll act.
3. Negative, unintended consequences including inflation--Eveillard is concerned about the unprecedented scale of the U.S. government's intervention. This includes a gigantic budget deficit, zero interest rates, and the ballooning of the federal balance sheet.

The third scenario is most likely, said Eveillard, who spoke about the lessons of the Austrian school of economists. The main lesson: If you're stupid enough to get into a really bad credit boom, you'll have a bad credit bust. However, the Austrians also say not to do a short-term patch after a bust because you'll compromise the medium-term and long-term recovery. This seems to be one of the roots of Eveillard's fear of the third scenario.

But Eveillard's inflation fears haven't made him give up on stocks. People make the mistake of thinking that inflation is all bad for stocks, he said. He believes in owning the stocks of companies that are able to raise prices as their costs rise. For example, that's something that newspapers were able to do back in the 1970s.

Eveillard did not comment on specific stocks that he favors now. "If I knew what my five best ideas were, that's all I would own," he quipped.

Benjamin Graham and The Intelligent Investor
Eveillard spent most of his time with the BSAS talking about the history of value investing. For him, the two big names are Benjamin Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor, and well-known investor Warren Buffett.

Graham's emphasis on the role of humility, caution, and order in investing make sense to Eveillard. He illustrated Graham's approach to investing as finding a business with an intrinsic value of $50 per share, buying it at $30-$35 per share, and starting to sell it at $40. This is what Warren Buffett called the cigar butt--one puff and it's over, said Eveillard.

Although Eveillard conceded that Graham's approach to investing is static and balance sheet-oriented, it still offers opportunities. There are "Ben Graham-type stocks" in Japan, especially among small caps, he said. Because "net cash is greater than market cash...you get the business for less than nothing," he said.

Warren Buffett added qualitative to quantitative
Benjamin Graham was "all about numbers." Even today,  value investors all start with companies' publicly available financial information, and then move on only if they're satisfied with the public numbers, said Eveillard.

Warren Buffett added qualitative analysis on top of Graham's quantitative analysis, said Eveillard. For example, Buffett likes companies that have a "moat," a sustainable competitive advantage.

Comparing Graham and Buffett, Eveillard said that the Graham approach is much less time-consuming, though potentially less rewarding, than the Buffett approach. The First Eagle Funds started out in Graham style, then switched to Buffett's style after adding the analysts that enabled them to do the necessary research, said Eveillard.

The case for value investing
Eveillard gave two reasons for pursuing value investing. First, it makes sense. Second, it works over time. He doesn't buy the argument that value investing works only in the U.S. In fact, First Eagle has never opened offices overseas because it doesn't want to be influenced by how the locals think. Still, he noted, "There are few genuine value investors in the U.S., but even fewer outside the U.S."

Why so few value investors? For starters, it's hard work. "Sell-side research is seldom useful" because of its six- to 12-month time horizon, said Eveillard. When your time horizon is five years, it makes a big difference in how you look at a business. That's why First Eagle's 11 analysts are "the true heart of our operation," he said.

The psychological hurdle to value investing is even higher than the research hurdle. It's not easy sticking with value investing's long-term time horizon. That's especially true when it means your investment performance may lag its benchmark in the short-term. First Eagle lost seven out of 10 investors during the period when its performance lagged from Fall 1997 to Spring 2000, said Eveillard.

To be a value investor, "there has to be a willingness on the part of the investor to take the short-term pain." In addition, you have to be willing to move away from the herd when it's nearing the cliff, said Eveillard, citing Warren Buffett. Value investing takes a temperament that many lack.

If you'd like to learn more about Eveillard's views, he's scheduled to appear on Bloomberg TV on Wed., April 14 April 14 at 5 p.m. EST, according to the First Eagle Funds website.
____________________
The next session of "How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read: A Five-Week Teleclass for Financial Advisors" starts April 22. Sign up to receive my free monthly newsletter.Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Tweets on talk by Harry Markopolos, Madoff whistleblower

Here are my tweets on today's talk to the Boston Security Analysts Society by Harry Markopolos, the Madoff whistleblower and author of No One Would Listen.

• "This case was a global tragedy" said Markopolos. "It was beyond evil."
• Madoff case is only in its 2nd innings, said Markopolos. There'll be more arrests due to cooperating witnesses.
• CFA# Code of Ethics is important to Markopolos. "It's about investors and doing the right thing," he said.
• CPAs, is this true? CPA code of conduct lacks affirmative duty to report fraud.
• Lesson #1 for Madoff victims: 0-25% is proper allocation to hedge funds, said Markopolos
• Lesson #2 for Madoff victims: Never put all of your eggs in one basket, said Markopolos
• Markopolos book is a good road map for conducting due diligence, said Sam Jones of the CFA Institute's board of governors. 

____________________
The next session of "How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read: A Five-Week Teleclass for Financial Advisors" will start in April. For more information, sign up to receive "Information on upcoming classes, workshops, and other events" as well as my free monthly newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Technical analysis of stocks can boost the power of your fundamental research

You can use technical analysis in combination with your firm's fundamental equity analysis to help decide when to buy or sell stocks. This is the message I took away from "Applying Technical Analysis to a Fundamental Investment Strategy," a March 23 presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society by David Keller, who oversees technical analysis as a managing director of research for Fidelity Investments. 

Technical analysis is not voodoo science, throwing darts at a board, or even a prediction of the future, said Keller. Rather, it's a way to analyze supply and demand using patterns, he said.

Fundamental research and technical analysis tackle different parts of the decision to trade a stock. Here's how Keller described them.

1. Fundamental research analyzes the company for the what and why of buy and sell decisions.
2. Technical analysis analyzes the stock, looking purely at market activity for when and how to buy or sell

These two approaches overlap, in the opinion of Keller and the Fidelity portfolio managers who use his team's research. Technical research helps to identify the best time to execute a fundamental strategy, he said. You can think of technical analysis as a trigger, he said.  

When the results of technical analysis diverge from those of fundamental research, portfolio managers should pay attention, according to Keller. He referred to point and figure charts as "a gut check on how I look at individual stocks."

Relative strength indicators are among the most important technical indicators, Keller said. They can be warning signs, he added.

Keller's message was warmly received by members of the audience, most of whom raised their hands when asked if they regularly consulted technical indicators. 

Related post
* Fidelity's head of technical research addresses "Where will the stock market go from here?"
____________________
The next session of "How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read: A Five-Week Teleclass for Financial Advisors" will start in April. For more information, sign up to receive "Information on upcoming classes, workshops, and other events" as well as my free monthly newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Fidelity's head of technical research addresses "Where will the stock market go from here?"

Will the bull market continue? 

Investment professionals are always curious. So naturally the question came up during a Q&A session with David Keller, who oversees technical analysis as a managing director of research for Fidelity Investments. The question followed Keller's March 23 presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society on "Applying Technical Analysis to a Fundamental Investment Strategy."

The bottom line: It appears that the market is in an uptrend and the offensive sectors will outperform their defensive peers. 

However, Keller framed his comments cautiously, saying that there is little evidence that the stock market is not in a sustained uptrend. Nor does he see evidence that the market is overbought.

"I can't say," replied Keller, when asked to identify his favorite sector. He's looking at groups that are traditionally considering offensive. "But it's not as clear cut as in the past," he said.


____________________
The next session of "How to Write Blog Posts People Will Read: A Five-Week Teleclass for Financial Advisors" will start in April. For more information, sign up to receive "Information on upcoming classes, workshops, and other events" as well as my free monthly newsletter.
Copyright 2010 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Harvard's Charles Collier on "The Practices of Flourishing Families"

 "The critical challenge you face is not financial," said Charles Collier, senior philanthropic adviser at Harvard University in his presentation on "The Practices of Flourishing Families" to an audience composed mostly of wealth managers at the Boston Security Analysts Society on December 15, 2009. He believes "The most critical challenges are relationship-based and family-based."

Of course, money plays a role in these challenges, so this is a topic that should concern all wealth managers. Whether it's scarce or abundant, money is a challenge in every family, said Collier.

Three questions are critical to addressing family challenges, said Collier.

1. What topics are easy or difficult for your family to discuss?
2. How do you manage yourself in life's transitions?
3. Is family harmony an important principle for you, and, if so, why? 

Collier's interactive presentation focused on Question 1 and raised the following difficult questions around finances:

1. What is an appropriate inheritance for your child?
   
2. Who gets the money, and when? Do they get equal shares?
3. Who gets information about the money and when?
4. How much will go to philanthropy?
5. What do you think will be the impact of unearned money on your child's life?
6. How can you encourage your children to find their life calling?
   

Collier did not suggest how financial advisors should raise these questions with their clients. So, I'm asking you, how do YOU address these questions with clients? Do you address them at all?
____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Recovery will be stronger than consensus, says Barclays Capital chief U.S. economist

"U.S. economic growth is recovering robustly, receiving the usual cyclical boost from housing and inventories," said Dean Maki, managing director and chief U.S. economist of Barclays Capital in his "U.S. Economic Outlook" presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS) on December 8. 

Maki said the U.S. economy will recover strongly, as it typically has done following past recessions. He disagreed with the many pundits who say "This time is different" and that the economic recovery will be drawn out because tight credit will keep consumer spending weak.

Credit is always tight following a recession, Maki said. "In these strong [economic] recoveries of the past, we haven't needed strong credit growth," he added. 

Maki discussed the following drivers of strong economic growth:
•    Production is set to grow much faster than final demand.
•    Housing is starting to rise because of its greater affordability.
•    Business has cut too much during downturn, so companies must boost spending soon to grow profits.

Some predictions
•    Real GDP will hit 5% by the first quarter of 2010 and stay at or above 3% in 2010.
•    Unemployment has peaked and will fall to 9.1% by the fourth quarter of 2010.
•    Inflation--and the fed funds rate--will remain low. However, the Fed will raise rates in the second half of 2010.

A couple of unexpected developments could derail Maki's predictions, he said. One is a sharp fall in the stock market. The other is a sharp rise in commodity/energy prices as a result of global economic growth. 

Do you agree with Maki's predictions? Please comment.

Dec. 11 update: 

If you're a member of the BSAS LinkedIn group, you can join a conversation there about Maki's talk.

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Which wealth managers have the highest profit margins?

People are always curious about who makes how much money. That's probably why I zeroed in on the profit margin comments made by investment banker Elizabeth Nesvold, managing partner of Silver Lane Advisors, when she spoke about "Trends Amid Turmoil in the Wealth Management Business" to the Boston Security Analysts Society on November 18.

Because multi-family offices (MFOs) deal with wealthier clients than financial planners, I was surprised to learn that their margins are lower than financial planners' in typical market scenarios, ranging from 10%-30% vs. 20%-35% for financial planners and asset allocators. However, the difference made sense when she explained that MFOs get hurt by "scope creep." It's expensive to service a multi-generational family as compared to an entrepreneur who just sold his or her business, Nesvold said.

Here's the hierarchy of margins under typical market scenarios, in descending order, according to Nesvold.

1. Hedge funds, 50%-70%
2. Hedge funds of funds, 25%-60%
3. Traditional institutional, 30%-70%
4. Investment counsel, 25%-40%
5. Financial planning/asset allocation, 20%-35%
6. MFOs, 10%-30%
   

Do these margins sound realistic to you?


____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

The best private equity opportunity in generations

"Our database tells us we're in a multigenerational opportunity to be a private equity investor," said Martin Grasso, CEO of Pearl Street Capital Group, a private equity fund-of-funds manager. He believes that investors with longer time horizons can get above-benchmark returns without significant volatility. Grasso made his comments as a panelist on "The State of Private Equity: Opportunity Through Crisis," presented to the Boston Security Analysts Society on November 5.

Data suggests that capital growth and buyout private equity get the highest returns in years with the lowest levels of EBITDA leverage, said Grasso. That's the situation we're in now.

It also pays to invest with the best, according to Grasso. Top quartile and top decile private equity fund managers show much higher levels of persistence than long-only public securities managers. In other words, top performers in private equity have a greater tendency to remain top performers. The difference in performance between top and bottom quartile managers is much greater in private equity than among public equity managers.

Implications for advisors:
* Access to top firms is still difficult, so go with a fund-of-funds to gain that access.
* Invest in 10 vintage years and consider some secondary offerings, which are available now that some investors can't meet their funding obligations as limited partners.
* Best private equity opportunities now are in small-medium companies where there's less competition and where private equity managers are more inclined to partner with management to "accrete value" and make minority investments.
* Diversify across geography and sectors.


The last two paragraphs of this post were revised on Dec. 7, thanks to some clarifications by Martin Grasso of Pearl Street Capital Group.

____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Private equity job hunting tips from four professionals

"Don't bring me a resume. Bring me a deal," said Daniel Meader, founder and managing partner, Trinity Advisory Group. Meader offered his advice during the Q&A following "The State of Private Equity: Opportunity through Crisis," a sold out presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society on November 5.

Other advice from panelists:

• In New England, the best job prospects are in venture. The corporate growth and buyout styles of private equity are stagnant locally, said Martin Grasso, CEO, Pearl Street Capital Group.
• It's good to have consulting experience as well as investment expertise, according to Scott Stewart, MS in Investment Management Faculty Director, Boston University School of Management.
• Get operating experience in turning around a distressed company, suggested Norman Rice, partner, ConsensusCapital Group.

Do you have more tips for private equity job hunters? Please add them in the comments.
____________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Behavioral Finance – A Three-Part Model for Client Relationships

Behavioral finance can deepen your client relationships during market turmoil, if you recognize your clients’ emotional right-brained reactions before you offer insights based on your analytical left-brained analysis. By applying a three-pronged process of Recognize-Reflect-Respond, you can adapt to new information in a thoughtful and effective framework.

Gayle H. Buff, president of Buff Capital Management, proposed this model in "Behavioral Finance: So What?" her June 15 presentation to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS). Buff has 20 years of experience working with individual investors and is a past president of the BSAS. As a member of the CFA Institute’s Speaker Retainer Program, she has spoken about behavioral finance to CFA societies around the world.


Continue reading my article, "Behavioral Finance – A Three-Part Model for Client Relationships," in Advisor Perspectives.

Behavioral finance can deepen your client relationships

Understanding behavioral finance can improve your client relationships. That's the lesson I took away from "Behavioral Finance: So What?", a June 15 presentation by Gayle H. Buff, president of Buff Capital Management, to the Boston Security Analysts Society (BSAS). Buff has 20 years of experience working with  individual investors and is a past president of the BSAS.

Like financial advisors, clients of investment and wealth managers don't act with complete rationality. They react with their emotional right brain in addition to their rational, reflective left brain. However, Buff said, to optimize our ability to make informed decisions, we need to use both sides of our brains. Advisors who understand this, can tailor their interactions with clients to take advantage of this. 

Behavioral finance experts have identified loss aversion, uncertainty aversion, and overconfidence as a few of the key investor tendencies that reflect the influence of the right brain. During the past year's financial crisis, Buff observed many instances where fear of uncertainty trumped fear of loss. Some of her clients wanted to sell their investments, even if that potentially meant locking in losses.

Behavioral finance helped Buff respond effectively to her clients who wanted to sell. Understanding that clients' "sell" requests were intensely emotional, "I don't take it personally or as them telling me I've done something bad," she said. Instead of arguing with them, Buff listened to her clients' fears. "Talking about what makes us afraid makes us less fearful," she said.

It isn't easy for most advisors to follow Buff's strategy. "We often want to rush in with facts," she said. However, advisors need first to acknowledge their clients' feelings. Only after doing that does it make sense to give clients an alternative perspective on the issues. The advisor who takes this two-step approach will find their clients more receptive.

In fact, if advisors and clients can work through a financial crisis, they may end up with a much deeper relationship. One of the big advantages may be enhancing clients' understanding of risk. Prior to the past year's financial crisis, most clients overestimated their risk tolerance said Buff.

Buff listed five areas that advisors should explore with their clients, including clients'
1. Capacity to tolerate market volatility and economic risk
2. Characteristic defensive posture in the face of anxiety and uncertainty;
3. Vulnerabilities, passions, strengths, weaknesses, and dreams
4. Ability to process, integrate, and adapt to new information a new experience
5. Commitment to working collaboratively and synergistically as one-half of the advisor–client
relationship

This blog post only touches on a tiny portion of Buff's material, which included a bibliography on complexity theory and adaptive systems, behavioral finance and investor psychology, and the intersection of theory and practice. However, she speaks on behavioral finance to CFA societies around the world, so she may come to your area.

By the way, it has been my pleasure to get to know Gayle through volunteering with her on the BSAS' Private Wealth Management committee. I've seen her dedication to financial education.

_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Fidelity expert: "CMBS Challenges & Opportunity: Are CMBS Securities Mispriced?"

By some measures, commercial mortage-backed securities (CMBS) are in good shape, according to Mark Snyderman, portfolio manager and CMBS group leader, Fidelity Investments, who presented on "CMBS Challenges & Opportunity: Are CMBS Securities Mispriced?" to the Boston Security Analysts Society on May 5. Still, he answered "No" to the big question posed by his title.


Good news: New construction and cash flow growth
Commercial property is not overbuilt, said Snyderman. In fact, in recent years, new construction has lagged the 2% growth rate needed to keep up with population growth and replacement of obsolete buildings. So, commercial property rents and occupancy should fare relatively well.


Commercial property growth has fallen from its peak. But even in 2009, Snyderman expects it will be flat or perhaps down by single digits. So, cash flow isn't much of a problem.


Problem: Lack of debt financing to squeeze mortgage borrowers
CMBS delinquency rates could rise to roughly 20 times their current level, which is below 2%, said Snyderman. Commercial real estate is suffering as debt financing becomes less available for highly leveraged properties purchased at historically high valuations. The disappearance of cheap debt financing and concerns about cash flow growth suggest that CMBS delinquencies will increase dramatically.


Pessimism will create opportunities
Investors must approach CMBS cautiously, said Snyderman. They can't rely on ratings because the ratings agencies haven't adequately reformed themselves. Instead, investors must do old-fashioned, bottom-up credit analysis on a property-by-property basis. It's also helpful to consider the "vintage" of a CMBS deal, even though there are deal-by-deal differences. 


Right now, we're in a wave of market optimism, said Snyderman. But, he predicted, a wave of pessimism will bring attractive opportunities in CMBS.

_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

"The Current Financial Crisis: Why did it happen and what is being done?"

Look at a typical investment bank's balance sheet and you can understand how the collapse of housing prices took down those banks. 

That's the message I took away from "The Current Financial Crisis: Why did it happen and what is being done?",  an April 16 presentation by John Haigh, executive dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, to the Boston Security Analysts Society. Haigh said it didn't take much to explode the investment banks' model of highly leveraged balance sheets with lots of short-term debt.

I liked his simple diagram of the progress of the financial crisis.
"Home prices fall -->mortgages reset --> delinquencies --> foreclosures --> prices fall further --> mortgage equity withdrawals decrease --> consumer spend falls --> job market erodes --> recession"

Haigh made several statements that stuck with me.
* People are wrong about the rating agencies. "These are such fundamentally new financial instruments tht they don't know how to rate them." That's because ratings agencies typically rely on historical data--which didn't exist for the new financial instruments--to build models for rating.
* There's a "hot potato theory" that investment banks tossed the hot potatoes off to pension funds. But, in fact, pension funds that got AAA notes got the better assets. Investment banks were left holding the worst assets. They thought they had insured against losses in those assets through credit default swaps. That turned out to be wrong. "That why they went overnight from being investment banks to being commercial banks." Given their exposure, they needed the liquidity and support of the federal government.
* People tell me credit default swaps are like Las Vegas, except Las Vegas is regulated and credit default swaps aren't.


To fix the near-term crisis, Haigh said, we must
1. Recapitalize banks
2. Restart interbank lending
3. Absorb "toxic" assets
4. Prevent bank runs

More regulation of financial services is coming. Haigh is concerned that the pendulum may swing from too little regulation to too much. He referred to an April 6 presentation by Barney Frank at the Kennedy School that discussed regulation.  However, Haigh said, "You have very smart, thoughtful people in the Obama administration. I don't think you'll get insane regulation unless Congress gets out of control." 

You can email John Haigh for a copy of his slides, if you'd like to learn more.

_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Harvard Management's Mendillo grapples with challenging environment

Even Jane Mendillo admits she had awful timing in becoming president and CEO of Harvard Management Company (HMC) on July 1, 2008. As she said in her presentation on "Endowment Management in a Changing World" to the Boston Security Analysts Society on March 25, she assumed her post
* Two days before commodity prices peaked
* Six weeks before the beginning of a massive rescue of financial institutions
* Just before six to nine months of the most challenging markets that most investment professionals have seen
Nonetheless, Mendillo showed a cheerful face to the friendly audience containing many fellow CFA charterholders.

Mendillo is cautious about investments because "At this point, uncertainty is a big factor in markets and economies. The short-mid term may be challenging," she said. It could take many years, she acknowledged, for the size of the Harvard endowment to return to its $37 billion level of June 30, 2008. Still, she noted, the endowment has posted excellent gains since its beginnings, including its growth from only $19 billion five years earlier.

Mendillo's caution is reflected in the endowment's actions. "We're not rushing for the exits. Nor are we rushing to get back into the markets," she said. Mendillo took pains to correct what she called misperceptions that HMC has sold private equity holdings for "pennies on the dollar." The firm has made some transactions in secondary markets, but hasn't taken major chunks out of its private equity holdings, she said.

HMC is taking a more conservative tack under Mendillo. It has cut back its -5% cash weighting to -3% for the first time in decades. Moreover, the portfolio is "seriously in cash," she said, because she wanted to create more flexibility in the portfolio and make room for new investments.

Where is HMC heading? Mendillo gave some clues, saying
* We continue to be cautious about deploying cash."
* "If we don't think we have an edge in a market, we stay out or we index."
* External management is significantly more expensive than internal management, so if external management doesn't pay off, HMC will hire a team that can deliver
* The failure of the illiquid portion of the portfolio to be self-funding has "impacted our appetite for further illiquid assets"
* She expects to see very attractive opportunities in real estate, but they may lie a couple years ahead.
* She is very excited about what the firm's natural resources team has uncovered.

_________________

Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

"James Grant: A Positive Lesson from the Great Depression"

Great price tags on a number of investments are the silver lining of the current recession, according to James Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. 

Grant shared his “Thoughts on the Financial Markets and the Current State of the Economy” with the Boston Security Analysts Society on February 11. He spoke at length about the virtues of value investing, as exemplified by the Depression era strategies of Floyd Odlum of Atlas Corporation. Today’s investors can learn from Odlum’s strategy of underpaying for assets, Grant said.

Continue reading "James Grant: A Positive Lesson from the Great Depression," my article in Advisor Perspectives.

_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2009 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved

Top 10 tips for CFA charterholders considering freelance writing

If you're a CFA charterholder considering a freelance writing career, here's advice from Omar Bassal, CFA. Omar is the head of asset management at NBK Capital, a freelance writer, and the author of Swing Trading for Dummies. 

I'm posting Omar's article as part of my preparation for a panel on "Alternative Careers for CFA Charterholders" to be presented to the Boston Security Analysts Society on January 14, 2009.

Here's Omar's advice.


1. Choose your work carefully: Part of being a good writer is choosing the right businesses and people to work with. There are a lot of fly-by-night operations that want text to fill space. While they might pay the bills, they won't further your professional development.

2. Get a proofreader: No one is perfect—not even CFA charterholders. Having a second pair of eyes before you submit your work is always smart. Find a reasonably priced person via Craigslist.

3. Know your audience: Be able to differentiate between unsophisticated audiences (where "standard deviation" is too technical a term to use), semi-sophisticated audiences (where "standard deviation" needs no further explanation) and sophisticated audiences (where "standard deviation" is an incomplete view of risk).

4. Get paid by work, not by hour: Firms will want to pay you by the hour. But you should push to be paid a flat rate for your work. This doesn't always mean you'll get more. But over time, you'll be more efficient and productive as a result. Plus, you won't need to keep tabs on every minute you're working versus checking e-mail.

5. Seek contracts: Monthly and quarterly newsletters and reviews are an excellent way to get your hands on steady income.

6. Network with other writers: There are many fish in the sea and writing as a CFA charterholder doesn't mean you're taking away business from a fellow CFA charterholder. Sometimes clients will come to you with requests that you're unwilling or unable to do. Being able to pass that work onto other contacts means your client feels his/her needs are being met by you. Do it often and others will return the favor.

7. A CFA charter does not mean you know everything: If you're an expert in equities, you may find navigating fixed income waters tough. Make sure you thoroughly understand what you're getting into before you agree to do a job.

8. Have a contract: Approach writing as you would any other business. Have a contract in place for every writing job which explains  your responsibilities, your contractor's expectations, delivery schedules, terms of cancellation and prohibition of passing your work on to other parties. Besides protecting your interests, a contract will flash a signal that you're a professional writer.

9. Seek out non-traditional clients: Realize that your easiest business may come from non-traditional clients. "Traditional clients" may be mutual funds, financial advisors and institutional asset management firms. Non-traditional clients include trade groups with pension plans, foundations, endowments and other less sought after institutions.

10. Punctuality is everything: Don't view your text as the finish line for your contractor. Your work will likely be checked by senior staff or formatted for e-mailing or printing—all things based on firm schedules. Treat your work as a business. Being late means being unreliable—no matter how great the final text may be.

_________________
Susan B. Weiner, CFA
Check out my website at www.InvestmentWriting.com or sign up for my free monthly e-newsletter.
Copyright 2008 by Susan B. Weiner All rights reserved